Slide 1
A 3D deep dive into the India-China borderBy Nathan Ruser and Baani Grewal
India–China border tensions have become one of the Indo-Pacific’s defining territorial disputes. Over three decades of confidence-building measures and border agreements ended in June 2020 with the deaths of Indian and Chinese soldiers in Ladakh. Despite multiple rounds of tactical and diplomatic talks in 2020–21, the military stand-off between the two Asian powers is currently at a stalemate. Before the Ladakh crisis, a 2017 stand-off between Indian and Chinese troops in Doklam highlighted the ongoing risk of an unsettled border.
The Chinese military’s activities on the contested border have been one of the key drivers behind the shift in the Indian public’s and government’s assessments of India’s relationship with China. The result has been a faster convergence in regional security and strategic policy directions. One obvious manifestation of this is the growing Quad partnership between New Delhi, Tokyo, Canberra and Washington. Events and activities on and around this contested border are important to understand, not only for regional dynamics but also because of the risk of conflict and escalation. This is phase 1 of this project, and it focuses on the Doklam region.
Our findings suggest that ad hoc disengagement agreements don’t change the long-term conditions or strategic and territorial imperatives for China. As the border becomes more crowded—with built-up infrastructure and thousands of Indian and Chinese positions continuing to compete for strategic territorial advantage—the risk of escalation continues to increase.
About this project & research methodology
About this project & research methodology
These images were cloud-free, although, in some areas, shadows created by terrain hindered our analysis. These images were visually analysed to search for areas of human influence and likely military positions and infrastructure, which we then marked and annotated. Archived imagery dating back to 2005 was also accessed and used to establish when developments had occurred.
Following this satellite image collection and analysis, we acquired 3D elevation data and used it to build both terrain analysis of the mapped positions and for imagery to be draped over, allowing a 3D model of the disputed area to be built.
Published on 22 September, this is phase 1 of the project and it focuses on the Doklam region. Future phases of this project will depend on our research capacity and funding support. If you would like to learn more about this project, support it, or both, please contact icpc@aspi.org.au.
Click here to see information about ASPI's International Cyber Policy Centre and the acknowledgements for this project.
Introduction
Introduction
The past year has seen a renewed build-up of military and transport infrastructure along the India–China border as both sides reacted to recent tensions. A new strategic reality, combined with heightened mistrust and growing Chinese assertiveness across the Indo-Pacific, has cemented the de facto India–China border as a flashpoint.
This makes India–China border tensions one of the key defining territorial disputes in the Indo-Pacific and therefore deserving of more attention from and understanding by policymakers across the region. Areas of contention span the entire border, including the 2020 clash areas in Ladakh (such as Galwan Valley and Pangong-Tso), but stretch as far as Doklam near Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh.
Increased numbers of both Chinese and Indian troops have been stationed near the border over the past year. Our research has tracked some of their movements, with particular concentrations seen in the Ladakh region. This has occurred concurrently with significant infrastructure build-up in the border regions by both India and China, allowing for both quicker injections of troops to the border and greater support for those stationed there.
One of the border areas we’ve been tracking is Doklam—a strategically significant territory cushioned between India, China and Bhutan but claimed by both China and Bhutan—which provides a template for how a renewed focus on the border could provoke further conflict in an already tense relationship.
The Doklam Region
The Doklam Region
But, after 73 days, the stand-off ended and both sides withdrew most frontline troops. Despite conflicting reports about the implementation of the 2017 disengagement agreement and increased Chinese activity bordering Doklam, the agreement was largely seen as a success at the time, leading to the belief that border de-escalation mechanisms were working and border tensions could be managed through political and diplomatic engagement (Prime Minister Modi and President Xi held two bilateral summits during 2018 and 2019).
Three years after the agreement, the 2020 Ladakh border crisis and subsequent breakdown of the bilateral relationship has increased scepticism in India regarding the success of broader political and military engagement that aimed to decrease potential escalations and settle the boundary dispute.
This has been reinforced by reports of a fresh, brief clash between Indian and Chinese troops in Sikkim in January 2021 near the site of the 2017 Doklam clash—a reminder of the continued heightened tensions and persistent risk of escalation across the entire India–China border.
* Calculated as part of the satellite analysis performed for this project.
Three years later, the 2020 Ladakh border crisis and subsequent breakdown of the bilateral relationship has increased scepticism in both India and China regarding the success of disengagement agreements in reducing tensions, along with broader political and military engagement which aimed to decrease miscalculations and settle the boundary dispute.
This has been reinforced by reports of a fresh, brief clash between Indian and Chinese troops in Sikkim in January 2021 - near the site of the 2017 Doklam clash - a reminder of the continued heightened tensions and persistent risk of miscalculation across the entire India-China border.
Our key findings
Our key findings
- India and China have both continued their military infrastructure build-up along the border, including the construction of new frontline observation towers and forward troop bases. China has accelerated construction following the 2017 stand-off, and road construction continued through late 2020 and early 2021.
- In Doklam, despite the 2017 disengagement agreement, China has exploited its de facto control of Bhutanese territory, allowing its military to continue building road infrastructure, including a strategic 'rear road', towards Indian territory. There was a significant bout of construction in 2018 and 2019, following the stand-off.
- India’s historical positions along the borderlands in the Doklam region have resulted in it maintaining a surveillance advantage throughout the area by using frontline positions abutting the border. However, China has consolidated its position across Doklam over the past 20 years, largely constructing in areas hidden by terrain from Indian positions. Some of this construction has accelerated since 2017
- Currently, approximately 50 square kilometres of internationally recognised Bhutanese territory is under the de-facto control of Beijing. The Chinese military continues to construct military positions and infrastructure in this area.
- The result is a highly crowded border with built-up infrastructure and thousands of Indian and Chinese posts continuing to compete for strategic territorial advantage. This increases the risk of escalation and potential military conflict.
The Chicken’s Neck - Siliguri Corridor and Jampheri ridge
The Chicken’s Neck - Siliguri Corridor and Jampheri ridge
Site of the 2017 border standoff
Site of the 2017 border standoff
Chinese positions on the Jampheri Ridge would put Chinese troops in a position of oversight of the Siliguri Corridor. India believes that access to the ridge could give China an upper hand in direct military conflict, especially if China used the position to cut off access for India to its northeastern states and Bhutan by controlling the corridor.
Reports from 2017 said that India believed China wanted to construct the road towards Mt Gipmochi, while China accused India of ‘triggering’ the clash by crossing the boundary into Bhutan and attempting to change the status quo through border infrastructure improvements.
India's Position
India: Positions—surveillance advantage and infrastructure—since 2005
In comparison to India, China has fewer positions and is largely positioned back from the border, placing only small concentrations of troops and military positions at the border ridges. However, its frontline troops are supported by significant transport and barracks infrastructure, which it has significantly increased since 2017, allowing Chinese troops to quickly mobilise to the border.
Even though all Chinese positions, except for the 2017 stand-off site, were established before 2005, it’s also worth noting that China has invested in significantly improving its road network, and hence access, to the region.
Proximity of mapped positions to the recognised Indian border
China's Position
China: Positions—new observation towers and hidden roads—since 2017
Since the 2017 stand-off, China has built several observation towers on sections of the border that it maintains control over, boosting its surveillance coverage over both Indian and contested territory. China’s infrastructure push since 2017 indicates Beijing’s long-term goal of building positions of strategic importance in Doklam.
One of these positions (the furthest right) is the location of the 2017 stand-off. The middle position appears to have been established in a 'gap' of Indian positions along the border and was expanded following the crackdown.
This tower is also similar to other installations constructed by Chinese forces in Bhutanese territory. Click in the bottom left of the slide to see a similar tower constructed in Chinese-occupied North Bhutan.
Click in the bottom left of the page to open a slider comparing the two positions.
Rear Road
China’s rear road hidden from Indian posts, leading up to Doka La
The image to the right shows a helipad constructed following the 2017 stand-off that was dug into the hillside, providing it cover from Indian postiions on a nearby ridge.
Although it is not complete, Indian positions have far more visibility into Chinese-occupied Bhutan and Chinese territory than the Chinese positions have across the border into India. This dynamic dominates the tactical element of this strategic area.
Click in the bottom left of the page to open a slider comparing the two maps.
Conclusion
Several risk-factors for future conflict remain
Several observers examined the outcome of the 2017 Doklam stand-off and concluded that India’s incursion into the disputed territory China was seeking to control could provide a successful model to deter Chinese expansionism and possibly force China to reassess its goals. Continued strategic construction since then, including towards the presumed Chinese objective of the Jampheri Ridge, shows that those goals remain.
Along the border, the causes of tension haven’t yet been addressed, and several risk factors for future conflict remain. They include the physical proximity of Indian and Chinese forces, the disparity between conceptions of where the border lies and China’s growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region. Those risk factors should be mapped in detail, and meaningful concessions by both sides must be made if either side wants to make the outbreak of conflict less likely. Should China continue to seek to change the status quo, then escalatory risks will grow.
Doklam has shown the resilience of strategic imperatives—especially for the Chinese military—despite disengagement agreements.
Acknowledgements
ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre receives funding from a variety of sources, including sponsorship, research and project support from governments, industry and civil society. No specific funding was received to fund the production of this report. This is phase 1 of this project. Future phases will depend on our research capacity and funding support. If you would like to support or learn more about this project, please contact icpc@aspi.org.au.
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) ASPI is an independent, non-partisan think tank that produces expert and timely advice for Australian and global leaders. ASPI generates new ideas for policy makers, allowing them to make better-informed decisions. ASPI is one of the most authoritative and widely quoted contributors to public discussion of strategic policy issues in the Indo-Pacific region and a recognised and authoritative Australian voice in international discussion on strategic, national security, cyber, technology and foreign interference issues.
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