Rakhine State

The governments of Myanmar and Bangladesh signed an initial deal in November 2017 to work towards the possible repatriation of the Rohingya. The Myanmar Government has also signed a memorandum of understanding with UN agencies for the repatriation of the Rohingya.

As part of those agreements, the Myanmar Government said it has constructed ‘reception’ and ‘transit’ centres to facilitate the return of the refugees.

However, repatriation efforts have continued to stall because of a range of issues. Human rights organisations have continuously expressed concerns that conditions aren’t in place to ensure a safe return.

In early 2018, a small number of refugees attempted to return to Rakhine of their own volition. They were arrested by the Myanmar Government, and some were given prison sentences. It was reported that they would be transferred to the Hla Pho Khaung Transit Centre in Rakhine State.

In November 2018, an attempt was made by Bangladesh to begin repatriation. While promising that the return would be voluntary, safe and dignified, the Bangladeshi authorities deployed the army into refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar – the largest refugee settlement in Bangladesh. Under international pressure, however, the government later paused repatriation efforts.

As of April 2019, more than 910,000 Rohingya live in refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar (pictured).

In June 2019, a report by the ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team was leaked to the media. The report was ‘a preliminary assessment' with a limited mandate and was undertaken by a team that was deployed for 10 days. The report attracted widespread criticism.

The ASEAN report outlines a process that would see 500,000 Rohingya refugees return to Myanmar over a period of six years. It also recommends how that process could be accelerated. As of April 2019, more than 910,000 Rohingya live in refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar.

Returning refugees will first pass through ‘reception centres’, which are intended to process 300 refugees per day. From the ‘reception centres’, refugees will be sent to a ‘transit centre’.

According to ASEAN, the Hla Pho Khaung Transit Centre (pictured) can accommodate 25,000 people in ‘temporary shelters’ at eight families per shelter. There’s additional capacity to accommodate returning refugees in ‘container-type’ shelters.

According to the report, refugees will remain in the transit centre for up to 30 days.

This project conducted original research through the collection and analysis of new satellite imagery. It also utilized existing datasets and open-source information including UNOSAT data, surveys, media reports and reporting conducted by civil society, human rights and multilateral agencies.  

UNOSAT data was used to identify the 392 settlements that were burned, damaged or destroyed during the 2017 crackdown. UNOSAT describes itself as a technology-intensive program developed under the UN Institute for Training and Research. At the request of the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Myanmar, UNOSAT used satellite imagery analysis and fire-detection data to map the destruction of villages between 25 August 2017 and 18 March 2018. 

We then used a combination of Google Earth, Planet Labs and commercial satellite imagery to find the most up-to-date satellite imagery of the 392 settlements. We assessed whether damaged settlements had been razed or left burnt. This was mostly assessed based on whether damaged structures and trees remained. If we saw reconstruction, we characterised it as residential, camp or military construction. Satellite imagery has been attributed on the image or credited to Digital Globe, a Maxar Company, via Google.

Satellite imagery is inherently varied in quality and acquisition dates. Our analysis conducted used multiple sources of satellite imagery, and we always sought to use and analyse the highest quality and the most recent imagery available. However, a limited number of ambiguous cases may be interpreted differently from our assessments, especially with the addition of more recent imagery. We don’t expect those cases to cover a significant proportion of our sample or to affect the conclusions that we’ve reached.

We also looked beyond the 392 settlements identified by UNOSAT and identified cases where settlements have been subject to new burning and demolition in other parts of northern Rakhine state. Some of this has occurred in 2018 and in 2019 in settlements not previously identified in the UNOSAT dataset. In a similar manner, we also broadly surveyed satellite imagery for newly constructed repatriation sites in northern Rakhine State.

We corroborated our analysis with other open-source information including reports about the transit and reception centres from civil society organisations and information from the ASEAN report. This research has undergone peer review and external consultation.

About us

ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre focuses on the growing importance of cyber and technology-related issues for broader strategic policy. The centre’s growing team of analysts have a mixture of expertise that include specialisations in policy issues, technical capabilities, Asian languages, satellite analysis and human rights. The centre has a mixed funding base and receives project and sponsorship funding from a range of government, industry and civil society groups, in Australia and internationally. This research project had no primary funder.

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